RoboSense (HK: 2498)

Updated: Aug 1, 2025

July 3, 2025 • Technology • BUY RECOMMENDATION

Technology Leader Best-Positioned to Capture Auto and Robotics LiDAR Market Growth at an Attractive Entry Point

RoboSense is a Chinese LiDAR([1]) player (#2 globally). Its strong position in Automotive LiDAR provides the scale and resources to continue competing effectively in this consolidating market. It also opens opportunities to expand into the more fragmented robotics and automation markets
Its technological edge – as the only mass producer of single-chip LiDAR technology, offering superior miniaturisation, efficiency, and scalability – makes RoboSense the leading contender to capture future growth
Its scale in Auto LiDAR enables strong R&D investment, rapid production ramp-up, and competitive costs – all essential to survive in this fast-evolving and capital-intensive industry
The LiDAR market’s characteristics further support long-term pricing power, being consolidated in Auto, with high barriers to entry (capital intensity, technological complexity) and sticky customer relationships
Despite these strengths, the stock is down c. 40% since its Feb 2025 peak, impacted by weak Q1 results and macro/geopolitical uncertainties. This creates a clear opportunity for re-rating if short-term issues resolve
A reverse DCF analysis shows that the market is pricing RoboSense with conservative long-term assumptions – offering an attractive entry point into a high-growth technology leader

The LiDAR market is entering a structural growth phase, driven by multiple high-potential applications. The most immediate opportunity lies in ADAS (Advanced Driving Assistance Systems) and mass-market vehicles, where rising safety standards and automation needs are accelerating adoption: the Auto LiDAR market is expected to grow 5x to 10x by 2030-32
Other segments – including robotaxis, warehousing robots, delivery systems, lawn mowers, autonomous trucks, and agriculture – are still emerging but offer significant long-term potential as automation trends deepen across industries
While the market is still in its early stages, China already shows tangible signs of mass-market adoption: in 2024, several EV models priced <RMB 100,000 integrated LiDAR, and penetration continues to rise
After a wave of intense competition (2017-2022), the industry has sharply consolidated. In China, Hesai, RoboSense, and Huawei now control nearly 70% of the Auto LiDAR market – with scale, tech depth, and capital acting as powerful barriers to entry. The winners are clearly identifiable, and RoboSense is already one of them

RoboSense is the only mass producer of single-chip SPAD-SoC([2]) LiDAR, integrating photon detection and signal processing on the same chip. This enables smaller form factors, lower power consumption, and superior system integration
This provides a long-term edge in both:
- Mass-market Auto, where easier integration and design flexibility are key
- Cost-sensitive applications such as robotics and delivery, where miniaturisation and energy efficiency drive adoption
Unlike Hesai (the current volume leader), RoboSense’s architecture is more advanced, natively scalable, and better positioned to become the industry standard as unit economics improve and technical requirements increase

Despite its leading position and +47% revenue growth in 2024, RoboSense is still priced conservatively. A reverse DCF suggests the market is only embedding mid-case Auto adoption and almost no contribution from Robotics. If RoboSense reaches even half its Auto market share in non-Auto segments, 2032 revenue could be +30-60% higher than implied.
Recent share price weakness reflects short-term pressures rather than structural concerns:
- 1Q25 revenue disappointed (-9%, loss of two customers), but gross margin improved and LiDAR volumes remain on track
- Fears around US tariffs and macro headwinds triggered a c. 40% drop since February 2025
These temporary factors have created a more attractive entry point. With sticky OEM relationships, scale ramping in SPAD-SoC, and exposure to structural growth markets, RoboSense is well positioned to surprise on both growth and margins – while offering asymmetric upside if sentiment improves