Trigano (FR: TRI)

Updated: Aug 2, 2025

May 12, 2025 • Consumer • BUY RECOMMENDATION

Market Leader with Sustainable Competitive Advantages, Structural Growth Tailwinds, and Attractive Entry Point

Trigano holds a dominant position in the European leisure vehicle market, supported by durable competitive advantages driven by scale, brand strength, and distribution reach, which together enable pricing power
Combined with best-in-class operational efficiency, these strengths translate into strong profitability, high returns on capital, and historically robust cash conversion – offering flexibility to reinvest, pursue selective M&A, or enhance shareholder returns
Altogether, these factors provide resilience through economic cycles – proven recently during the Covid crisis, as well as during the highly inflationary environment and supply chain disruptions of 2022-2023
Trigano is well positioned to capture structural market growth opportunities, driven by favourable demographic trends, evolving travel habits, and underpenetrated markets in Southern and Eastern Europe
Following a disappointing 2Q25, impacted by a higher-than-expected excess inventory issue, combined with a context of macro uncertainty, investors have become overly pessimistic on Trigano. However, fundamentals remain robust despite these temporary disruptions. The stock now trades at an EV/EBITDA NTM of 4.7x, offering an attractive entry point into a resilient business

The stock price declined significantly after the 2Q25 results (-20% the two weeks following), driven by the larger-than-expected issue related to the excess inventory (volume down by c.4,600 vs. c.4,000 initially expected). This inventory issue is cyclical rather than structural, creating a buying opportunity before the expected normalisation
Summary of the situation:
- Following post-Covid demand surges and supply chain shortages in 2022-2023, distributors aggressively overstocked in 2024, amplified a regulatory transition. Thus, the sector faced a temporary oversupply, and so did Trigano
- This created a €300m oversupply at Trigano’s perimeter vs. end-user demand. However, the correction appears to be well underway: in 1H25 alone, Trigano’s organic sales fell by -17% (c. €250-300m), matching the estimated excess. The end-market (registrations) remained stable, implying that the destocking is nearly completed. Concrete improvement of sales should start in 3Q25 and market sentiment should improve then

Period of aggressive restocking, Trigano’s sales growing faster than end-market demand, leading to excess inventory at resellers’ level
Period of adjustment, Trigano’s sales lower than end-market demand, leading to normalisation

This situation offers an attractive entry point into a fundamentally robust business, before the market prices in the normalisation and re-rating potential

Trigano is the European leader in leisure vehicles (29% market share), with:
- An unrivaled scale
- A diversified brand portfolio
- A dense commercial network (1,300+ distributors, 80+ owned dealerships)
Its core client base (retirees and upper-middle-class households) offers both resilience and pricing power, proven by its ability to pass +20-30% cost inflation in 2023 without volume loss
It is best positioned to capture structural tailwinds: demographic growth in the Young Seniors (60-70 y-o population group expected to grow +4% p.a. between 2025-2030), rising popularity of slow and local travel, and growing adoption in underpenetrated markets such as Southern and Eastern Europe – where Trigano already outpaces local demand

At 4.7x EV/EBITDA NTM, the stock trades significantly below both its 10Y average (c. 8x) and peers like Knaus Tabbert (7.1x). This discount reflects short-term disruptions rather than deteriorating fundamentals
If inventory levels normalize and growth returns in line with the market, a re-rating to Trigano’s historical average valuation of 8x EBITDA (vs. 4.7x currently) would imply an upside of approximately +70%
Conversely, even in a downside scenario assuming lasting inventory issue and macroeconomics headwinds for the next three years, the valuation impact is limited to -20%, implying a highly attractive asymmetric risk/reward profile for a market leader with best-in-class profitability and a net-debt-free balance sheet